The regional cut: county-level penetration, metro concentration, sector mix and loss history across the two-state footprint the initiative underwrites.
What does that lending look like in Kansas and Missouri?
Everything below is the evidence for those three sentences. You can read only this box and still follow the argument. Underlined terms open a plain definition — the full glossary has them all.
Kansas and Missouri together took 3.2% of national 7(a) loans and 2.8% of 504 debentures. On volume they are a mid-sized market. On credit performance they are, by a clear margin, better than the national book.
| Loans | Gross approved | Avg loan | Charge-off rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KS+MO 7(a) | 32,336 | $4.99B | $154,354 | 18.2% |
| National 7(a) | 1,008,922 | $189B | $186,985 | 20.2% |
| KS+MO 504 | 6,275 | $3.27B | $521,164 | 10.8% |
| National 504 | 224,331 | $146B | $652,820 | 9.8% |
Each bar is how many loans were approved that year; the line is the average size of those loans.
Rising bars mean more loans got made; a climbing line means loans got bigger, not just more numerous.
Bars: loans approved. Line: average loan size.
Each bar is how many loans were approved that year; the line is the average size of those loans.
Look for a trend in the bars over time, but treat the last bar as partial since FY2026 only covers three months.
FY2026 covers October–December 2025 only.
Kansas 7(a) borrowers charged off at 16.4% of resolved loans against a national rate of 20.2%. Missouri came in at 19.2%. Neither state's advantage comes from lending less — it comes from who wrote the loans.
219 of 220 counties recorded at least one 7(a) loan. That looks like universal coverage until you weight it — four metro clusters absorbed three-quarters of the region's approvals, and 25 counties have never seen a single 504 debenture in thirty-four years.
Top twenty of 220.
| County | Metro | Loans | Charge-off |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Louis, MO | St. Louis | 3,777 | 19.9% |
| Johnson, KS | Kansas City (KS side) | 3,014 | 16.6% |
| Jackson, MO | Kansas City (MO side) | 2,667 | 18.4% |
| Greene, MO | Springfield | 2,285 | 17.8% |
| Sedgwick, KS | Wichita | 2,113 | 16.6% |
| Saint Charles, MO | St. Louis | 1,223 | 21.1% |
| Saint Louis City, MO | St. Louis | 1,055 | 20.7% |
| Boone, MO | Columbia | 705 | 17.0% |
| Clay, MO | Kansas City (MO side) | 640 | 21.0% |
| Jasper, MO | Joplin | 618 | 22.1% |
| Jefferson, MO | St. Louis | 520 | 17.8% |
| Christian, MO | Springfield | 490 | 23.8% |
| Wyandotte, KS | Kansas City (KS side) | 488 | 17.0% |
| Shawnee, KS | Topeka | 461 | 17.4% |
| Douglas, KS | Lawrence | 449 | 14.7% |
| Camden, MO | — | 421 | 17.8% |
| Cole, MO | — | 403 | 15.8% |
| Taney, MO | Branson / Taney | 377 | 22.9% |
| Platte, MO | Kansas City (MO side) | 295 | 19.6% |
| Franklin, MO | St. Louis | 294 | 24.2% |
Counties grouped to metropolitan areas.
| Metro | Counties | Loans |
|---|---|---|
| Non-metro | 167 | 8,007 |
| St. Louis | 8 | 7,047 |
| Kansas City (MO side) | 9 | 4,029 |
| Kansas City (KS side) | 6 | 3,789 |
| Springfield | 5 | 3,171 |
| Wichita | 5 | 2,603 |
| Joplin | 2 | 802 |
| Columbia | 4 | 792 |
| Topeka | 5 | 567 |
| Branson / Taney | 2 | 527 |
| Lawrence | 1 | 449 |
| Manhattan | 2 | 327 |
The rural counties got less credit — and the credit they got performed better. Non-metro Kansas and Missouri borrowers charged off at 16.7% against a regional average of 18.2% and a national 20.2%.
One labor market, one media market, two sets of state institutions and two SBA district offices. The metro is the largest SBA market in either state.
Johnson and Wyandotte counties share a border, an area code and a metropolitan statistical area — but a wide gap in access and outcomes, detailed in the source register.
The industry mix here is not the national mix. Kansas and Missouri over-index in construction, manufacturing and retail, and — in 504 specifically — carry an unusually heavy hospitality concentration that shows up directly in the loss column.
Each bar compares how much this region lends to an industry against how much the whole country lends to it.
Bars pointing right mean the region leans into that industry more than average; bars pointing left mean it leans away.
Each bar is the region's share of approvals in that sector minus the national share. Bars to the right mean the region lends into that industry more heavily than the country does.
| Sector | Loans | Share | Nat. share | Charge-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Trade | 4,742 | 19.4% | 15.3% | 23.8% |
| Other Services | 2,624 | 10.8% | 8.9% | 18.2% |
| Construction | 2,493 | 10.2% | 7.4% | 20.4% |
| Accommodation & Food Services | 2,418 | 9.9% | 8.6% | 26.3% |
| Manufacturing | 2,219 | 9.1% | 7.2% | 17.8% |
| Health Care & Social Assistance | 2,009 | 8.2% | 6.5% | 13.6% |
| Professional & Technical Services | 2,008 | 8.2% | 7.6% | 13.9% |
| Wholesale Trade | 1,291 | 5.3% | 5.2% | 17.5% |
| Administrative & Waste Services | 1,209 | 5.0% | 3.8% | 16.5% |
| Transportation & Warehousing | 782 | 3.2% | 2.5% | 19.7% |
| Sector | Loans | Share | Nat. share | Charge-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accommodation & Food Services | 979 | 18.4% | 12.7% | 24.4% |
| Retail Trade | 750 | 14.1% | 11.5% | 12.4% |
| Manufacturing | 694 | 13.0% | 11.4% | 11.2% |
| Health Care & Social Assistance | 563 | 10.5% | 12.5% | 8.3% |
| Other Services | 561 | 10.5% | 8.4% | 6.0% |
| Professional & Technical Services | 440 | 8.3% | 8.0% | 2.9% |
| Construction | 305 | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% |
| Wholesale Trade | 305 | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% |
| Arts, Entertainment & Recreation | 176 | 3.3% | 2.6% | 18.2% |
| Administrative & Waste Services | 119 | 2.2% | 2.2% | — |
| Industry | Loans | Avg loan |
|---|---|---|
| Full-Service Restaurants | 1,049 | $174,132 |
| Limited-Service Restaurants | 653 | $173,980 |
| General Automotive Repair | 603 | $123,664 |
| Offices of Chiropractors | 493 | $85,591 |
| Child Day Care Services | 436 | $152,406 |
| Offices of Dentists | 403 | $228,695 |
| Landscaping Services | 391 | $70,523 |
| Beauty Salons | 352 | $80,250 |
| Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores | 293 | $124,582 |
| Gift, Novelty, and Souvenir Stores | 281 | $88,723 |
| Industry | Loans | Avg loan |
|---|---|---|
| Hotels (except Casino Hotels) and Motels | 357 | $1,139,891 |
| Full-Service Restaurants | 319 | $520,646 |
| Limited-Service Restaurants | 196 | $515,990 |
| Child Day Care Services | 154 | $505,844 |
| General Automotive Repair | 147 | $283,612 |
| Offices of Dentists | 117 | $512,479 |
| Gasoline Stations with Convenience Stores | 112 | $460,554 |
| Veterinary Services | 107 | $403,770 |
| Car Washes | 98 | $373,501 |
| Automotive Body, Paint, and Interior Repair and Maintenance | 78 | $363,833 |
504 hospitality lending is 45% more concentrated here than nationally — 18.4% of the region's debentures against 12.7% of the country's — and it charges off at 24.4% against a national 19.4%. Branson and the Lake of the Ozarks are visible in the credit data.
Loans written by banks headquartered in Kansas or Missouri charged off at a materially lower rate than loans written into the region by out-of-region institutions.
Ranked by loans written to Kansas and Missouri borrowers.
| Lender | Loans | Gross |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Bank, National Association | 3,447 | $437M |
| Bank of America, National Association | 3,204 | $256M |
| Commerce Bank | 2,682 | $290M |
| The Central Trust Bank | 1,601 | $244M |
| Simmons Bank | 1,223 | $247M |
| UMB Bank, National Association | 954 | $191M |
| Regions Bank | 706 | $127M |
| Enterprise Bank & Trust | 648 | $111M |
| Readycap Lending, LLC | 617 | $284M |
| INTRUST Bank, National Association | 577 | $89M |
| BMO Bank National Association | 567 | $99M |
| Capital One, National Association | 567 | $24M |
| CDC | Loans | Gross |
|---|---|---|
| Rural Missouri, Inc. | 1,998 | $1.13B |
| St. Charles County Economic De | 930 | $503M |
| Heartland Business Capital, In | 531 | $283M |
| STL Partnership CDC | 491 | $251M |
| Frontier Financial Partners, I | 369 | $236M |
| Wakarusa Valley Development, I | 336 | $148M |
| Enterprise Development Corpora | 269 | $132M |
| South Central Kansas Economic | 239 | $107M |
| Mo-Kan Development, Inc. | 183 | $68M |
| Clay/Platte Development Corpor | 146 | $69M |
| EDC Loan Corporation | 130 | $67M |
| Small Business Growth Corporat | 129 | $84M |
A count-based reading of this region says it outperformed the national book. A dollar-weighted, vintage-matched reading says something more precise and more useful — and the difference matters for anyone pricing a ten-year instrument against it.
By loan count across FY1992–FY2009, Kansas and Missouri charged off 18.1% against a national 20.2%. By dollars, it reverses: 11.1% against 10.6%.
Decomposed by origination vintage the reason is clear. The region lost more than the nation in every cohort from FY1992 through FY2004, and substantially less in the FY2006–FY2008 crisis cohorts. The full-period count advantage is a mix effect: national volume was enormous in exactly the years the region avoided.
This is a lower-beta, higher-base-rate market. Worse in calm conditions, materially better in a downturn. That is a defensible characteristic for long-dated paper — but it cannot be presented as simple regional outperformance, because on dollars across the cycle it is not.
| FY | Region loans | Region loss | Nat. loss | Region chg-off | Nat. chg-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1992 | 1,257 | 4.7% | 4.3% | 10.7% | 8.9% |
| 1993 | 1,322 | 4.9% | 3.4% | 11.3% | 8.0% |
| 1994 | 1,708 | 6.2% | 4.0% | 13.2% | 10.0% |
| 1995 | 2,371 | 7.6% | 5.4% | 14.6% | 12.5% |
| 1996 | 1,708 | 7.3% | 6.2% | 14.6% | 13.0% |
| 1997 | 1,381 | 7.7% | 6.1% | 14.6% | 12.3% |
| 1998 | 1,195 | 7.6% | 7.4% | 13.5% | 13.4% |
| 1999 | 1,042 | 10.9% | 8.6% | 17.2% | 14.0% |
| 2000 | 1,047 | 13.6% | 9.3% | 18.8% | 14.7% |
| 2001 | 1,021 | 9.9% | 8.9% | 16.4% | 14.6% |
| 2002 | 1,212 | 11.2% | 7.1% | 17.3% | 13.3% |
| 2003 | 1,566 | 9.3% | 7.3% | 16.2% | 15.4% |
| 2004 | 1,950 | 10.0% | 8.6% | 19.5% | 18.5% |
| 2005 | 2,413 | 14.0% | 13.4% | 21.9% | 24.6% |
| 2006 | 2,261 | 17.8% | 19.9% | 26.9% | 32.3% |
| 2007 | 2,395 | 21.0% | 24.0% | 27.1% | 37.1% |
| 2008 | 1,739 | 18.3% | 18.6% | 21.9% | 30.6% |
| 2009 | 1,153 | 9.9% | 8.0% | 15.3% | 14.7% |
Two lines track what share of loan dollars were eventually lost, grouped by the year the loan was made, for the region and the nation.
Where the region's line sits below the national line, its loans from that year lost less money.
Charged-off principal as a share of original approved balance, by fiscal year of approval.
Gross loss by origination channel, national, FY1994–FY2005 vintages. Channel is the one large driver that an origination agreement can actually specify.
| Channel | Loans | Gross loss |
|---|---|---|
| Community Express | 13,463 | 19.1% |
| International Trade Loans | 2,092 | 14.3% |
| SBA Express Program | 171,664 | 12.9% |
| Low Documentation Program | 124,986 | 10.4% |
| Preferred Lenders Program | 130,868 | 7.6% |
| 7a General | 86,532 | 7.6% |
| Certified Lenders Program | 33,162 | 5.3% |
| 7a with EWCP | 2,200 | 2.6% |
Joining the National Bankers Association MDI network on FDIC certificate number, and the certified-CDFI depositories on verified name, state and institution type, gives a countable answer to how much Kansas and Missouri small-business capital has ever moved through mission lenders.
CDFI-listed institutions appearing in the 7(a) register with name, state and institution type all confirmed, plus the NBA-network MDI total.
| Institution | City | Years | Loans | Capital | Charge-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Bank of Kansas City | Kansas City, MO | 1993–2004 | 13 | $2.2M | 46.2% |
| Legacy Bank & Trust Company | Plato, MO | 1992–2006 | 16 | $2.7M | 11.1% |
| Century Bank of the Ozarks | Gainesville, MO | 1994–2007 | 9 | $1.4M | 10.0% |
Charge-off rates on samples this small are not credit signals. Central Bank of Kansas City's 46.2% rests on thirteen loans. It is reported because it is the only mission-lender track record that exists in this metro, and diligence will find it.
Additionality is normally argued. Here it can be counted. Against a regional market that moved $4.39B of 7(a) capital, mission lenders originated $6.2M — 0.14% of the dollars. There is no displacement story to rebut and no attribution dispute to have.
The same figure reads differently to a rating committee: there is no regional loss history for mission-lender origination because there are essentially no regional mission-lender originations. Origination capacity has to be built or imported, and the plan should say which.
The NBA network's physical footprint in the two states is 4 branches across three institutions. Nationally the network originated 0.8% of 7(a) capital, and 31 of its 43 institutions appear in the register at all.
Non-depository CDFIs — loan funds, the largest category by count — could not originate 7(a) at scale during the period this file covers. Community Advantage opened the programme to mission-driven non-depositories in 2011; SBA lifted the moratorium on new Small Business Lending Company licences in 2023. A historical CDFI share measures a rule, not a market. AltCap, Great Rivers Community Capital and Gateway Community Development Fund appear nowhere in the register, which is exactly what that rule predicts.
Loan counts alone cannot show a gap — a gap needs a denominator. Jackson County employment data supplies one: credit intensity per thousand jobs, set against how specialised the county already is in each industry.
Two-digit NAICS, which is stable across the 2002–2022 code revisions. Credit index is the sector's share of county SBA lending divided by its share of covered employment; 1.0 is parity. Location quotient above 1.0 means the county is more concentrated in that industry than the country.
| Sector | Employees | Emp. share | Lend. share | Credit index | LQ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 56,074 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 0.43 | 1.13 |
| Accommodation & Food | 35,609 | 12.9% | 10.0% | 0.77 | 1.07 |
| Professional Services | 34,446 | 12.4% | 11.3% | 0.90 | 1.57 |
| Retail Trade | 29,448 | 10.6% | 15.8% | 1.49 | 0.96 |
| Construction | 23,221 | 8.4% | 10.7% | 1.27 | 1.29 |
| Finance & Insurance | 16,090 | 5.8% | 1.7% | 0.29 | 1.53 |
| Administrative Services | 14,194 | 5.1% | 5.4% | 1.06 | 0.77 |
| Manufacturing | 11,111 | 4.0% | 9.2% | 2.30 | 2.02 |
| Other Services | 10,692 | 3.9% | 11.5% | 2.98 | 1.23 |
| Wholesale Trade | 9,059 | 3.3% | 6.4% | 1.94 | 1.00 |
| Management of Companies | 7,133 | 2.6% | 0.0% | 0.02 | 1.14 |
| Arts & Recreation | 6,664 | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.74 | 2.27 |
| Educational Services | 6,291 | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.42 | 1.08 |
| Transportation | 5,525 | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.21 | 0.68 |
| Information | 5,311 | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.08 | 1.51 |
| Real Estate & Rental | 5,302 | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.11 | 1.08 |
| Agriculture | 618 | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.22 | 1.52 |
Covered employment is 276,788 jobs across 107 industries. BLS suppresses every industry under 500 employees and all non-private employment, so the smallest firms — the SBA borrower profile — are excluded from the denominator. Sectors such as management of companies show near-zero intensity because they sit outside SBA size and eligibility standards, not because they are underserved.
Four-digit industries with the highest location quotients in the county, with last year's employment change.
| Industry | Employees | LQ | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spectator Sports | 1,842 | 4.48 | -6.1% |
| Other Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing | 2,609 | 3.86 | 10.5% |
| Converted Paper Product Manufacturing | 1,710 | 2.64 | 3.6% |
| Museums, Historical Sites, and Similar Institutions | 1,063 | 2.45 | 1.6% |
| Performing Arts Companies | 721 | 2.24 | 0.0% |
| Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing | 569 | 2.16 | -2.6% |
| Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services | 8,725 | 2.11 | 2.7% |
| Agencies, Brokerages, and Other Insurance Related Activities | 7,011 | 2.08 | 1.2% |
This line tracks what share of recently founded businesses in the county are still open, over time.
A falling line means newer waves of businesses are surviving at lower rates than earlier ones.
Share of establishments founded in the preceding five years still operating. Census Business Dynamics Statistics, Jackson County.
FY2015–FY2017 cohorts averaged 65.9% five-year survival; FY2019–FY2023 cohorts average 54.9%.
Fabricated metal manufacturing carries a location quotient of 3.86 and grew 10.5% last year. Nonresidential construction and architectural & engineering services (2.11 quotient, 8,725 employees) show the same pattern — high specialisation, positive or flat growth, thin credit. That is the origination thesis, stated specifically enough to act on.
Ranked on what the loss analysis says actually matters: performance against the national benchmark, reach outside the fourteen metro-core counties, avoidance of Express-family channels, and scale. Two lists, with very different shelf lives.
The 504 list is current. Those records run through FY2026, so approvals since FY2020 measure live origination capacity. This is the actionable sheet.
The 7(a) list is historical. Those records end at FY2009. It ranks how institutions behaved, not what they can do now — several have since merged or left SBA lending. Treat it as a qualification list, not a call list.
Tier 1 requires forty or more approvals since FY2020 and a charge-off rate below 15%.
| Certified development company | Tier | Loans | Capital | Avg | Charge-off | Outside metro core | Counties | Since FY2020 | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rural Missouri, Inc. | Tier 1 — priority | 1,619 | $886M | $546,973 | 12.1% | 51% | 110 | 278 | 2025 |
| St. Charles County Economic De | Tier 1 — priority | 701 | $359M | $512,046 | 8.6% | 22% | 32 | 89 | 2025 |
| Heartland Business Capital, In | Tier 1 — priority | 452 | $234M | $517,611 | 3.4% | 4% | 20 | 87 | 2025 |
| STL Partnership CDC | Tier 2 — qualify | 386 | $190M | $490,990 | 8.4% | 3% | 13 | 22 | 2024 |
| Frontier Financial Partners, I | Tier 1 — priority | 325 | $203M | $623,672 | 12.2% | 64% | 43 | 40 | 2025 |
| Wakarusa Valley Development, I | Tier 1 — priority | 270 | $118M | $435,250 | 10.9% | 11% | 20 | 42 | 2024 |
| Enterprise Development Corpora | Tier 2 — qualify | 231 | $112M | $485,559 | 10.7% | 44% | 25 | 26 | 2025 |
| South Central Kansas Economic | Tier 3 — conditional | 192 | $85M | $442,229 | 20.7% | 64% | 37 | 10 | 2024 |
| Mo-Kan Development, Inc. | Tier 3 — conditional | 156 | $60M | $382,372 | 13.3% | 96% | 29 | 8 | 2025 |
| Clay/Platte Development Corpor | Tier 3 — conditional | 130 | $58M | $447,377 | 5.9% | 8% | 10 | 13 | 2025 |
| Small Business Growth Corporat | Tier 3 — conditional | 105 | $58M | $554,838 | 16.9% | 10% | 12 | 17 | 2024 |
| EDC Loan Corporation | Dormant | 100 | $52M | $516,580 | 5.4% | 3% | 6 | 0 | 2016 |
| Pioneer Country Development, I | Dormant | 94 | $32M | $339,149 | 8.0% | 94% | 31 | 3 | 2020 |
| Meramec Regional Development C | Tier 3 — conditional | 76 | $28M | $365,276 | 31.0% | 95% | 23 | 5 | 2024 |
Composite score weights charge-off performance 35%, lending outside the metro core 25%, avoidance of Express-family channels 20%, scale 20%.
| Lender | Tier | Loans | Avg | C/O | Outside core | Express |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Citizens State Bank · KS | Tier 1 — priority | 114 | $123,179 | 7.0% | 93% | 49% |
| Hawthorn Bank · MO | Tier 1 — priority | 179 | $124,401 | 9.5% | 84% | 52% |
| The Central Trust Bank · MO | Tier 1 — priority | 1,477 | $153,350 | 16.6% | 55% | 51% |
| Simmons Bank · AR | Tier 1 — priority | 1,139 | $203,187 | 21.7% | 54% | 26% |
| Emprise Bank · KS | Tier 1 — priority | 222 | $160,670 | 10.4% | 61% | 40% |
| Conway Bank · KS | Tier 1 — priority | 104 | $129,275 | 6.7% | 56% | 33% |
| Peoples Bank and Trust Company · KS | Tier 1 — priority | 127 | $165,125 | 14.2% | 96% | 48% |
| UMB Bank, National Association · MO | Tier 1 — priority | 841 | $196,300 | 11.4% | 21% | 33% |
| Equity Bank · KS | Tier 2 — qualify | 289 | $138,304 | 11.5% | 69% | 56% |
| Citizens National Bank of Springfield · MO | Tier 2 — qualify | 161 | $178,100 | 4.3% | 26% | 34% |
| Enterprise Bank & Trust · MO | Tier 2 — qualify | 579 | $170,476 | 11.8% | 9% | 21% |
| Community National Bank & Trust · KS | Tier 2 — qualify | 102 | $117,165 | 11.8% | 96% | 67% |
| INTRUST Bank, National Association · KS | Tier 2 — qualify | 532 | $154,348 | 12.6% | 21% | 34% |
| Southwest Missouri Bank · MO | Tier 2 — qualify | 153 | $121,386 | 15.7% | 99% | 67% |
The bottom of the same ranking. Note the relationship between Express-family share and loss: these are not banks that lent to worse borrowers so much as institutions running a different product.
| Lender | Loans | Avg loan | Express share | Charge-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bank of Hope · CA | 324 | $20,735 | 99% | 46.6% |
| VelocitySBA, LLC · TX | 203 | $9,286 | 81% | 34.5% |
| Capital One, National Association · VA | 552 | $43,207 | 100% | 37.9% |
| Business Loan Center, LLC · SC | 218 | $252,985 | 62% | 42.7% |
| NBKC Bank · KS | 103 | $172,252 | 28% | 28.7% |
| PNC Bank, National Association · DE | 478 | $116,582 | 77% | 23.7% |
| Premier Bank · KS | 114 | $203,332 | 51% | 14.9% |
Nationally, Certified Lender Program originations lost 5.32% of balance against 12.89% for SBA Express and 19.13% for Community Express over identical vintages. A cap on streamlined-channel share, or a Certified Lender Program documentation standard, is a cheap and evidence-backed credit enhancement that costs nothing in mission terms.
Twenty-five counties have received no 504 debenture in thirty-four years — fifteen in Kansas, ten in Missouri. Fixed-asset capital is what anchors a business to a place, and this is where none has gone.
FY2020–FY2026 7(a) records, as of 30 June 2026, added to the analysis. The programme this region participates in today is not the programme described in the preceding nine plates — the average loan is nearly three times larger, the channel mix has inverted, and on access the region has crossed from above the national rate to below it.
Just 23.7% of FY2020–FY2026 loans have resolved. Median time from approval to charge-off is 4.2 years and only 44% of ultimate loss emerges by year five. Every charge-off rate in this plate will rise materially. They are useful for ranking, not for pricing.
A ten-year hole remains. FY2010–FY2019 7(a) is still not in the dataset. Nothing here bridges FY2009 to FY2020, so no seasoned post-crisis vintage exists in this analysis.
Funded 7(a) loans. Left column FY1992–FY2009, right column FY2020–FY2026.
| Measure | FY1992–FY2009 | FY2020–FY2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Funded loans | 885,217 | 317,155 |
| Capital approved | $164B | $171B |
| SBA-guaranteed share | 72.8% | 75.5% |
| Average loan | $185,099 | $540,285 |
| Median loan | $80,000 | $200,000 |
| Median term | 7 years | 10 years |
| Jobs per loan | 5.7 | 10.5 |
| Sold into secondary market | 25% | 37% |
| Median initial rate | not recorded | 9.00% |
| Share of book resolved | 99.4% | 23.7% |
| Charge-off rate (resolved) | 20.2% | 9.2% unseasoned |
| Loss as share of balance | 10.66% | 0.52% unseasoned |
Bars show how many loans were approved each year; the line shows the average loan amount.
Rising bars mean more lending activity; a rising line means loans are getting larger on average.
Bars: loans approved. Line: average gross approval. FY2026 covers October 2025 to June 2026 only.
This compares what share of loans went through each lending channel, then versus now.
A channel growing its share means more loans are now processed that way instead of the older methods.
Share of funded approvals by processing method. Low-documentation and Community Express are gone; Preferred Lenders is now the majority of the programme.
Kansas and Missouri have crossed from above the national access rate to below it. In FY1992–2009 the region ran 356 loans per 100,000 residents against a national 304. Across FY2020–FY2026 it is 85 and 90 per 100,000 against a national 96.
Kansas City remains the larger of the two metros. The Johnson–Wyandotte gap has widened.
| Area | Loans | Capital | Avg loan | Jobs/loan |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City metro | 2,284 | $1.23B | $539,698 | 11.6 |
| St. Louis metro | 1,735 | $1.01B | $581,490 | 12.4 |
| Johnson County, KS | 889 | $482M | $542,381 | 11.4 |
| Jackson County, MO | 697 | $407M | $584,012 | 13.4 |
| Wyandotte County, KS | 115 | $72M | $626,220 | 13.4 |
| Greene County, MO | 529 | $303M | $571,928 | 13.1 |
Per 100,000 residents, Johnson County now runs 146 against Wyandotte's 68 — a 2.1× gap, wider than the 1.7× recorded across FY1992–FY2009.
Top KS/MO originators, FY2020–FY2026. The roster has turned over almost completely from the legacy era.
| Lender | Loans | Capital | Avg | C/O |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Bank, National Association | 647 | $96M | $148,313 | 4.3% |
| OakStar Bank | 545 | $398M | $730,972 | 1.7% |
| The Central Trust Bank | 259 | $58M | $224,012 | — |
| Commerce Bank | 231 | $79M | $340,067 | — |
| The Huntington National Bank | 224 | $104M | $464,129 | — |
| Live Oak Banking Company | 174 | $280M | $1,607,445 | — |
| The Bank of Missouri | 168 | $60M | $355,504 | — |
| BayFirst National Bank | 163 | $31M | $189,353 | — |
| Emprise Bank | 157 | $70M | $446,295 | — |
| UMB Bank, National Association | 137 | $67M | $485,593 | — |
| Readycap Lending, LLC | 130 | $33M | $252,810 | — |
| Regent Bank | 129 | $69M | $533,547 | — |
| Bank of Hays | 124 | $30M | $241,170 | — |
| Equity Bank | 122 | $66M | $539,629 | — |
The modern file records business age as a category. Change-of-ownership loans are the largest and, so far, the best performing; new businesses under two years old are the worst.
| Borrower stage | Loans | Avg loan | Jobs/loan | C/O |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Existing or more than 2 years old | 174,220 | $444,080 | 10.3 | 8.5% |
| New Business or 2 years or less | 52,532 | $468,063 | 8 | 13.8% |
| Startup, Loan Funds will Open Business | 51,565 | $542,539 | 11.6 | 9.5% |
| Change of Ownership | 34,978 | $1,150,703 | 13.9 | 4.5% |
Community Advantage opened 7(a) to mission-driven non-depositories in 2011 — after the legacy file ends. It is visible here for the first time.
| Channel | Loans | Capital | In KS/MO | C/O |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NBA-network MDI banks | 1,568 | $1.33B | 11 | — |
| Community Advantage | 2,240 | $355M | 52 | 28.3% |
| Regional mission-lender loans, FY2020–26 | 63 of 8,056 | 0.78% | ||
Community Advantage is the channel EMBI's origination model most resembles, and it carries the worst performance of any modern 7(a) channel — 28.3% charge-off on the 36% of its loans that have resolved, against 6.1% for Preferred Lenders and 12.2% for SBA Express. On an unseasoned book that ordering is unlikely to improve. Whatever else the origination agreements specify, they should not replicate the Community Advantage credit box unmodified.
Kauffman Entrepreneurial Jobs Indicators, 2001–2024, joined to the lending register at county, metro and state level. Every access figure in the preceding plates used population as the denominator. Replacing it with actual young-firm job creation reverses one of them and sharpens another.
Per 100,000 residents, Kansas ranks 29th and Missouri 26th of 50 states — below the national rate. Normalised by net job creation at firms aged 0–1, Kansas ranks 20th and Missouri 18th, both slightly above the national mean. The population-denominated figures in Plates 01 through 10 should be read against this.
The region is not credit-constrained relative to its entrepreneurial activity. It converts business formation into SBA credit at a marginally better-than-average rate. The per-capita deficit reflects fewer young firms, not less willing lenders. That is a formation gap, not a capital gap — and it calls for a different intervention.
Loans per 100,000 residents against loans per 1,000 net young-firm jobs. FY2020–FY2024 lending, EJI 2020–2024.
| Measure | Kansas | Missouri | National |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loans per 100,000 residents | 66 | 68 | — |
| Rank of 50 states | 29th | 26th | — |
| Loans per 1,000 young-firm jobs | 29.5 | 30.2 | 29 |
| Rank of 50 states | 20th | 18th | — |
| Highest normalised | OH 62.6 · MN 56.5 · NH 55.3 | ||
| Lowest normalised | TN 14 · AL 14.8 · DC 15.7 |
Across the 50 states the correlation between lending per capita and young-firm job creation is only 0.279 — the SBA delivery system tracks entrepreneurial activity weakly. Within Kansas and Missouri counties, the rank correlation between loan count and young-firm employment share is -0.231, i.e. slightly negative.
Three lines track how many jobs new businesses created per 1,000 people, for Kansas, Missouri and the nation, over time.
A line below the others means that state's new businesses are creating fewer jobs relative to its population.
Net job creation at firms aged 0–1. Both states have run below the national rate for most of the period since 2010. Missouri's 2024 value is an incomplete-year artefact and should be disregarded.
Counties with census population available. “Normalised” is loans per 1,000 net young-firm jobs — the population term cancels, so it isolates conversion of entrepreneurial activity into credit.
| County | Loans | Per 100k | Young-firm jobs /1k | Normalised | Young-firm pay | Job constancy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greene, MO | 406 | 135.8 | 5.68 | 47.8 | 40% | 54.7% |
| Jasper, MO | 154 | 125.4 | 4.85 | 51.7 | 39% | 51.9% |
| Boone, MO | 210 | 114.4 | 4.48 | 51.1 | 45% | 54.0% |
| Johnson, KS | 684 | 112.2 | 6.82 | 32.9 | 64% | 54.1% |
| Jackson, MO | 514 | 71.7 | 5.3 | 27 | 46% | 52.9% |
| Clay, MO | 174 | 68.7 | 4.36 | 31.5 | 45% | 53.9% |
| Platte, MO | 71 | 66.5 | 4.71 | 28.2 | 52% | 55.8% |
| St. Charles, MO | 263 | 64.9 | 3.81 | 34 | 44% | 54.6% |
| St. Louis, MO | 636 | 63.3 | 5.7 | 22.2 | 50% | 56.0% |
| Sedgwick, KS | 325 | 62 | 4.64 | 26.7 | 50% | 52.9% |
| St. Louis, MO | 181 | 60 | 5.27 | 22.8 | 45% | 55.7% |
| Cass, MO | 64 | 59.4 | 4.19 | 28.3 | 47% | 55.3% |
| Wyandotte, KS | 90 | 53.2 | 3.8 | 28 | 49% | 48.8% |
| Douglas, KS | 62 | 52.2 | 4.16 | 25.1 | 46% | 51.3% |
| Jefferson, MO | 92 | 40.6 | 2.56 | 31.7 | 38% | 56.1% |
| Shawnee, KS | 66 | 36.9 | 3.63 | 20.4 | 47% | 55.0% |
Wyandotte receives 53.2 loans per 100,000 residents against Johnson's 112.2 — the 2.1× gap shown in Plate 03. But Wyandotte's young firms create 3.8 jobs per 1,000 people against Johnson's 6.82. Normalised, the gap closes to 28 against 32.9 — roughly 1.2×.
Most of the credit differential between these two counties is explained by how few young firms Wyandotte has, not by lenders declining the ones it does have. The equity finding survives, but it relocates: the constraint is business formation and job quality, not loan approval.
Compensation is average earnings at firms aged 0–1 relative to the U.S. average. Constancy is the share of those jobs held for three consecutive quarters. National young-firm compensation is 0.646.
| Metro | Young-firm pay | Constancy | Jobs /1k | Employment share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | 53.4% | 53.3% | 5.17 | 2.9% |
| Wichita | 49.3% | 53.0% | 4.40 | 2.6% |
| St. Louis | 47.8% | 55.5% | 4.40 | 2.8% |
| Topeka | 44.0% | 54.6% | 3.56 | 2.5% |
| Columbia | 43.9% | 54.1% | 4.26 | 3.1% |
| Joplin | 41.4% | 53.0% | 4.08 | 3.0% |
| Springfield | 40.5% | 54.6% | 5.23 | 3.2% |
| United States | 64.6% | 54.3% | 5.27 | 3.3% |
This line tracks how well jobs at new Kansas City businesses pay compared to the national average, over time.
A falling line means new-business jobs in Kansas City pay less relative to the rest of the country than before.
Relative compensation at young firms, Kansas City metro, 2001–2024.
From 84% of the national average in 2001 to 35% in 2024 — a secular decline, not a cyclical one. Young-firm employment share also fell from 4.0% to 2.8%. The metro still forms firms at close to the national rate; what those firms pay has diverged.
Kansas City's young firms create jobs at roughly the national rate. They pay 53% of the national average, down from 84% in 2001. The regional deficit is not the quantity of entrepreneurship or the credit behind it — it is the quality of what gets created.
Kauffman New Employer Business Indicators, 2005–2025, joined to the lending register at state level. Four stages sit between an idea and a financed employer business, and each has a measurable rate. Locating where Kansas and Missouri lose people settles what kind of problem this is.
Applications per 100 people is implied as new employer businesses ÷ actualization rate, so it carries the timing approximation in that ratio. Every other figure is measured directly.
| Funnel stage | Kansas | Missouri | National | Rank KS / MO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stage 1 · Applications per 100 people | 1.02 | 1.33 | 1.53 | 46th / 25th |
| Stage 2 · Application → employer business | 10.27% | 8.64% | 8.39% | 17th / 25th |
| Stage 2b · Quarters to first payroll | 2.01 | 2.01 | 2.35 | — |
| Stage 3 · New employer businesses per 100 people | 0.1052 | 0.1148 | 0.1282 | 36th / 29th |
| Stage 3b · Share of employers under 1 year | 5.69% | 6.63% | 7.46% | — |
| Stage 4 · SBA loans per 1,000 new employer businesses | 125.5 | 118.5 | 117.1 | 15th / 19th |
Kansas converts business applications into employer businesses at 10.27%, against a national 8.39% — better than 34 other states. It then finances those businesses at 125.5 SBA loans per 1,000 new employer businesses, against a national mean of 117.1, ranking 15th of 51.
Both of the stages this project can influence are performing above average. What Kansas does not have is applications: an implied 1.02 per 100 people against a national 1.53 — roughly a third fewer, ranking 46th of 51. Missouri sits closer to the middle but shows the same shape.
The leak is at stage one, before capital is in the picture. A credit facility deployed at stage four cannot fix a deficit created at stage one. That does not make EMBI unnecessary — it makes the claim it should be underwritten on a narrower and more honest one.
Three lines show what share of new business applications actually turn into businesses with paid employees, for Kansas, Missouri and the nation.
A higher line is better: it means more applications succeed in becoming real, hiring businesses.
Share of business applications becoming employer businesses within eight quarters.
Nationally the rate fell from 15.8% across FY2005–09 to 8.4% across FY2020–24, while time from application to first payroll slowed from 1.55 to 2.35 quarters. Both states sit above the national line throughout.
Three lines track how many new businesses with employees are formed per 100 people, for Kansas, Missouri and the nation.
A line below the others means that state is producing fewer new hiring businesses relative to its population.
Both states have run below the national rate throughout, and the gap widened after 2020.
Kansas forms 18% fewer new employer businesses per person than the nation and Missouri 10% fewer — despite converting applications at a better rate. The shortfall is in what enters the funnel.
The same lending volume, ranked against population, young-firm job creation and new employer businesses. Only the population measure puts Kansas and Missouri below average.
| Denominator | Kansas | Missouri | National | KS rank | MO rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population — loans per 100,000 residents | 66 | 68 | — | 29th | 26th |
| Young-firm jobs — loans per 1,000 | 29.5 | 30.2 | 29 | 20th | 18th |
| New employer businesses — loans per 1,000 | 125.5 | 118.5 | 117.1 | 15th | 19th |
Across the 51 geographies the correlation between SBA lending per capita and new employer business formation fell from 0.55 in FY2005–09 to 0.209 in FY2020–24. The delivery system has decoupled from where businesses are actually forming.
The early-stage indicators in Plate 13 reach the same conclusion by a different route. Kansas ranks 46th of 51 on the rate of new entrepreneurs — a Current Population Survey measure with no methodological overlap with the Census business-application data used here — and 17th on loans per 1,000 new entrepreneurs. Two agencies, two methodologies, one answer: formation is the deficit, conversion to credit is not.
What remains open is the FY2010–FY2019 7(a) file. Every vintage loss curve in this analysis still terminates on the FY2007 cohort, and nothing bridges FY2009 to FY2020.
Kauffman Early-Stage Entrepreneurship Indicators, 1996–2025. Demographic breakdowns exist only at national level, so what follows is a national frame against a regional lending record. It is nonetheless the only view of who starts businesses that this project has — the SBA register carries no race, sex, nativity or veteran field at all.
Share of the adult non-business-owner population starting a business each month. Opportunity share is the proportion who were not unemployed when they started — the closest measured proxy for choice versus necessity.
| Group | Rate of new entrepreneurs | vs national | Opportunity share |
|---|---|---|---|
| National total (ages 25–64) | 0.373% | 1.00× | 82.4% |
| EDUCATION | |||
| Less than High School | 0.683% | 1.83× | 79.4% |
| High School Graduate | 0.396% | 1.06× | 81.6% |
| Some College | 0.351% | 0.94× | 82.9% |
| College Graduate | 0.313% | 0.84× | 84.1% |
| NATIVITY | |||
| Immigrant | 0.612% | 1.64× | 83.3% |
| Native-Born | 0.296% | 0.79× | 82.1% |
| RACE | |||
| Latino | 0.553% | 1.48× | 81.7% |
| Black | 0.351% | 0.94× | 79.0% |
| Asian | 0.321% | 0.86× | 87.6% |
| White | 0.301% | 0.81× | 83.1% |
| SEX | |||
| Male | 0.447% | 1.20× | 80.1% |
| Female | 0.268% | 0.72× | 86.2% |
| AGE | |||
| Ages 45-54 | 0.423% | 1.13× | 80.8% |
| Ages 35-44 | 0.405% | 1.09× | 82.1% |
| Ages 55-64 | 0.364% | 0.98× | 85.3% |
| Ages 20-34 | 0.275% | 0.74× | 82.0% |
| VETERAN | |||
| Non-Veteran | 0.359% | 0.96× | 82.6% |
| Veteran | 0.264% | 0.71× | 78.3% |
Americans without a high school diploma start businesses at 0.683% a month — more than double the rate of college graduates. Immigrants start at 0.612% against 0.296% for the native-born. Latino adults start at 0.553% against 0.301% for white adults.
Set that against the borrower profile in the modern 7(a) register: 94.1% corporations, 81.9% collateralised, $200,000 median loan. The highest-formation populations in the country are the least likely to arrive incorporated, with assets to pledge, seeking a ticket that size. The two distributions barely overlap.
Necessity entrepreneurship concentrates in the same place. Veterans have the lowest opportunity share of any group measured at 78.3%, followed by Black entrepreneurs at 79.0% and those without a high school diploma at 79.4% — against 87.6% for Asian entrepreneurs and 84.1% for college graduates.
State-level indicators, 2021–2025 averages, with rank of 51 geographies.
| Indicator | Kansas | Missouri | National | Rank KS / MO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate of new entrepreneurs | 0.220% | 0.312% | 0.373% | 46th / 26th |
| Opportunity share | 80.0% | 81.2% | 82.4% | 38th / 33rd |
| Startup early job creation | 4.23 | 5.33 | 5.29 | — |
| Startup early survival rate | 75.5% | 74.3% | 78.5% | 44th / 50th |
| KESE composite index | -3.69 | -1.41 | 0.00 | — |
| Loans per 1,000 new entrepreneurs | 11.4 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 17th / 27th |
Demographic breakdowns are published at national level only; state rows carry totals. Loans per 1,000 new entrepreneurs uses the method paper’s guidance that annual formation runs six to eight times the monthly rate, so it is comparative rather than absolute.
Five-year averages. The composite index is a z-score centred on the 1996–2015 national mean; below zero is below that reference.
| Period | KS rate | KS survival | KS index | MO index | US rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005–2009 | 0.244% | 79.7% | -0.3 | -2.54 | 0.324% |
| 2010–2014 | 0.259% | 77.9% | -0.63 | -0.16 | 0.329% |
| 2015–2019 | 0.283% | 77.0% | -1.1 | 0.38 | 0.339% |
| 2021–2025 | 0.220% | 75.5% | -3.69 | -1.41 | 0.373% |
Kansas’s composite index fell from -0.3 in 2005–2009 to -3.69 in 2021–2025 while the national rate of new entrepreneurs rose from 0.324% to 0.373%. Startup survival fell from 79.7% to 75.5%. The state did not stand still — it moved backwards while the country moved forward.
The same regional lending volume, ranked against population and against three independent measures of entrepreneurial activity from two different agencies and two different methodologies.
| Denominator | Source | KS rank | MO rank | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population | Census | 29th | 26th | Below average |
| Young-firm job creation | Kauffman EJI | 20th | 18th | Above average |
| New employer businesses | Kauffman NEB | 15th | 19th | Above average |
| New entrepreneurs | Kauffman KESE | 17th | 27th | At or above average |
Across 51 geographies, the correlation between SBA lending per capita and the rate of new entrepreneurs is -0.085 — effectively zero. Against startup survival it is -0.144. Only the population denominator makes this region look credit-starved, and population is the one denominator with no entrepreneurial content in it.
Missouri ranks 50th of 51 on startup early survival and Kansas 44th. Both states finance the businesses that form at an above-average rate. Neither is good at getting businesses started, and both are now among the worst in the country at keeping them alive.
Fiserv Small Business Index, January 2019 to July 2026, joined to the regional lending concentration. Every other source in this report measures formation, employment, survival or credit. None of them measures revenue — which is what actually services debt. This is the first series that does, and it lands on the two sectors this region is most exposed to.
Fiserv returns byte-identical Kansas and Missouri values in some months, indicating pooled or suppressed state-sector cells. Across the full 91 months no series exceeds 80% duplication. Transportation & Warehousing is highest and Information next; Accommodation & Food duplicates in under 10% of months and Retail Trade in about 1%. Duplication is period-specific rather than structural, so short windows overstate it substantially.
Duplication rates are reported per sector in the table so the reader can weight accordingly. The sectors carrying this region’s lending concentration are clean.
Three lines track small business revenue over time for Kansas, Missouri and the nation, adjusted for inflation and set to 100 in 2019.
A line above 100 means sales are higher than in 2019; a line above the others means that place is outperforming the country.
Inflation-adjusted, seasonally adjusted, benchmarked to 2019. The COVID trough, the 2021 recovery, and the 2024 crossover where both states move above the national line.
From 98.8 and 96.8 in January 2019 to 113.4 and 113.1 today, against a national move from 97.4 to 109.5. The April 2020 trough is the deepest point on all three lines; both states recover faster and cross above the national line in 2024. Aggregate small business revenue in this region has been outperforming for two years, which is what makes the two sector exceptions below notable.
At the April 2020 trough the national small business real sales index fell to 81.6. Kansas bottomed at 89.3 and Missouri at 89.8 — ranking 9th and 7th shallowest of 50 states. The region absorbed roughly half the national drawdown.
That is the same signature the lending data showed from an entirely different direction. Kansas and Missouri lost more than the nation in every 7(a) vintage from FY1992 through FY2004 and substantially less in the FY2006–FY2008 crisis cohorts. Two independent datasets, two different crises, thirty years apart, one conclusion: this is a low-beta small business economy — softer in expansions, markedly more resilient in contractions.
For a ten-year instrument that is a genuine structural characteristic and it should be underwritten as one. It is also, again, not the same claim as regional outperformance.
Mean across January 2019 to July 2026. Rank is of 50 states. Duplication is the share of months in which Kansas and Missouri return identical values.
| Sector | Kansas | KS rank | Missouri | MO rank | US | Duplication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation | 129.3 | 6 | 115.9 | 21 | 116 | 0% |
| Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services | 121.7 | 26 | 116.5 | 39 | 120.6 | 0% |
| Health Care and Social Assistance | 107.6 | 40 | 117 | 7 | 112.8 | 0% |
| Real Estate and Rental and Leasing | 96.3 | 41 | 123.7 | 4 | 111 | 0% |
| Retail Trade | 100.4 | 44 | 104.3 | 32 | 105.3 | 1% |
| Other Services | 103.6 | 46 | 109.9 | 21 | 109.1 | 2% |
| Accommodation and Food Services | 99.6 | 28 | 100.5 | 23 | 99.8 | 10% |
| Wholesale Trade | 108.4 | 38 | 108.2 | 40 | 112.1 | 20% |
| Educational Services | 102.2 | 42 | 122.8 | 22 | 115.7 | 25% |
| Construction | 121.1 | 19 | 118.9 | 24 | 119.3 | 26% |
| Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services | 115.7 | 11 | 119.6 | 7 | 109.2 | 37% |
| Information | 184.9 | 22 | 204.2 | 5 | 170.7 | 41% |
| Transportation and Warehousing | 124.5 | 5 | 124.3 | 6 | 116.1 | 58% |
This tracks how hotel, restaurant and bar revenue changed from a year earlier, for Kansas, Missouri and the nation.
Bars or lines above zero mean revenue grew from a year earlier; below zero means it shrank.
The sector carrying the region’s heaviest 504 concentration and the file’s weakest revenue line.
This tracks how retail revenue changed from a year earlier, for Kansas, Missouri and the nation.
Values above zero mean retail sales grew compared with a year earlier; below zero means they fell.
12.3% of modern 7(a) approvals, below its 2019 real level in Kansas throughout.
Accommodation and food services is 18.4% of the region’s 504 debentures against 12.7% nationally, and charges off at 24.4% against 19.4%. Its real sales index averages 99.6 in Kansas and 100.5 in Missouri against a national 99.8 — essentially flat against 2019 in inflation-adjusted terms after four and a half years, and the weakest sector in the file.
Retail trade is 12.3% of modern 7(a) approvals. Kansas averages 100.4, ranking 44th of 50 and sitting below its 2019 real level throughout. Missouri averages 104.3 against a national 105.3.
With the full series in hand, the obvious question is whether small business revenue leads SBA charge-offs closely enough to serve as an early-warning instrument. Tested against 6,866 monthly national charge-off events over 65 months, it does not. Correlations run -0.284 contemporaneously and drift positive at long lags — the wrong sign for a causal reading.
Nine conclusions the regional data supports directly.
The region loses more in calm years and materially less in downturns — a defensible but distinct characteristic from simple outperformance.
In-region lenders charged off at 14.9% against 21.9% for out-of-region originators on the same borrowers and economy.
Twenty-five counties have never received a 504 debenture in thirty-four years.
This is document 2 of 5 in the reading path. Back to the Research index.